If you pulled up two different real estate data platforms for North Bay Village this year, you would come away with two different stories. One shows the median sale price jumping more than 45 percent year over year in the three months ending in May 2026. The other shows the price per square foot on active listings falling 4 percent over the same stretch, as of August 2026. Both numbers are accurate. Neither one tells you what is actually happening on these three islands.
The real story is not appreciation or depreciation. It is supply, and specifically what happens to a small, land-locked town when four unrelated developers decide to build at the same time.
Why a Handful of Closings Can Swing a Median
North Bay Village is tiny. Redfin recorded 30 home sales in the town in May 2026, down from 34 the year before. When your entire monthly sample is smaller than a single condo building's closing party, one or two high-value transactions can move the median by double digits without reflecting anything about the broader market. That is almost certainly what happened here. A 45 percent jump in median sale price on 30 transactions is a mix story, not a trend line. It tells you which properties happened to close, not which direction values are heading.
Meanwhile, the price-per-square-foot figure on active listings, the number that better reflects what sellers currently believe their properties are worth, is doing the opposite. Movoto put North Bay Village's list price at $411 per square foot in August 2026, a 4 percent decline from the same month a year earlier, alongside a median list price of $452,000. Days on market also compressed sharply, down to a median of 59 days from well over 100 the year before.
Read together, the picture is a town where a wave of new listings, some of it likely tied to owners in older buildings selling ahead of construction disruption or repositioning, is landing on the market faster than it used to and pricing slightly softer per square foot, even as a handful of premium closings drag the median sale price upward. That is not a contradiction. It is what a small market looks like when it is being reshaped from underneath by forces the monthly stats were never built to capture.
The Pipeline Underneath the Number
Those forces have names, addresses, and, in one case, a construction loan that closed two weeks ago.
Shoma Group, the Coral Gables based developer led by Masoud and Stephanie Shojaee, secured a $172.5 million construction loan for its 24-story, 333-unit Shoma Bay tower at 1850 John F. Kennedy Causeway, according to The Real Deal's September 1, 2026 report. Nuveen Green Capital provided the debt through a C-PACE structure, which Nuveen says ranks among the five largest such financings in Florida to date. Shoma bought the site for roughly $16 million in 2022 with plans for a rental apartment tower, then pivoted to condos anchored by a 36,000-square-foot Publix. Asking prices for units started in the $800,000s.
A few hundred yards away on Harbor Island, Related Group and New York based Macklowe Properties are preparing something considerably larger. The two firms secured zoning approval in the summer and fall of 2025 for a Ritz-Carlton branded, two-tower development at 8000 and 7946 East Drive, according to The Real Deal's October 2025 coverage. The towers will rise 43 stories and roughly 500 feet, hold 364 condominiums between them, and include a 42-slip private marina and a 9,000-square-foot public waterfront park. It marks Harry Macklowe's first ground-up development in South Florida. Sales had not officially launched as of mid-2026.
Two more projects round out the wave. Mikael Hamaoui has plans for a 30-story, 70-unit Pagani branded tower at 7940 West Drive, also on Harbor Island. And the Eichner family's Continuum Company, which is based in both New York and North Bay Village, has proposed two condo towers plus a 200-key hotel and marina on 4.5 acres that include the former Shucker's and Best Western site. Andy Ansin also has a phased project spanning land on both sides of the 79th Street Causeway, which by footprint is the largest of the group.
Here is what that looks like side by side:
| Project | Location | Scale | Status as of September 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shoma Bay | 1850 JFK Causeway | 333 units, 24 stories, Publix anchor | Construction financing closed |
| Ritz-Carlton Residences (Related + Macklowe) | 8000 & 7946 East Drive, Harbor Island | 364 units, two 43-story towers | Zoned and approved, sales not yet launched |
| Continuum (Eichner family) | Former Shucker's / Best Western site | Two towers, 200-key hotel, marina | Planned |
| Pagani tower (Hamaoui) | 7940 West Drive, Harbor Island | 30 stories, 70 units | Planned |
| Ansin phased project | North and south of 79th St. Causeway | Largest footprint, multi-phase | Planned |
Estimates for the total value of this pipeline vary depending on who is counting and what is included, with figures ranging from roughly $2 billion to $5.5 billion. That spread is itself worth sitting with. When even the people closest to a market cannot agree on the size of what is coming, a buyer relying on a single portal's median price is working with far less information than the number implies.
What Happens to the Building You Are Not Buying
The Ritz-Carlton site offers the clearest look at the mechanism at work. Related and Macklowe assembled more than 4.1 acres for their towers from two existing properties: the Biscayne Sea Club co-op and the Majestic Isle condominium. To build there, a Related-Macklowe entity terminated the Majestic Isle condo association, a legal process Florida law requires before an existing building can be torn down and redeveloped.
That detail matters beyond this one site. It is a preview of the decision every owner of an older, lower-density building in North Bay Village will eventually face as land becomes scarcer and assemblage economics improve. A unit's value in that scenario is not really about the unit. It is about the land underneath it and whether that land is worth more assembled into someone else's tower than it is as a standalone building.
For a buyer evaluating an existing condo in North Bay Village today, that changes the questions worth asking. A building's age, unit mix, and lot size relative to its neighbors say more about its long-term trajectory than its current price per square foot. A small, older building sitting on a large lot near Harbor Island's waterfront edge is playing a different game than a similarly priced unit in a newer mid-rise a few blocks inland. One may eventually be worth more as a redevelopment site than as a place to live. The other is simply competing on its own merits against Shoma Bay's amenities and, eventually, the Ritz-Carlton's.
Reading a North Bay Village Listing Right Now
None of this means North Bay Village is a bad place to buy. It means the town's pricing signals are currently doing two jobs at once, reflecting genuine demand for a small stock of waterfront property while also pricing in four separate bets on where a construction cycle this size will land. A buyer comparing North Bay Village to Miami Beach or Edgewater should treat the median sale price with real skepticism given how thin the transaction count is, weigh the falling per-square-foot list price as a signal that sellers are adjusting to more competition rather than less, and ask direct questions about a building's site size and assemblage potential before assuming its current price reflects its long-term value.
The island is not quietly holding steady while a few new towers go up around it. It is in the middle of deciding what kind of place it will be once four separate developers finish building their answer.
Frequently Asked Questions
Does new construction always raise the value of nearby existing homes? Not automatically. New supply can lift a neighborhood's profile and amenities, but it can also compress per-square-foot pricing on older stock in the short term by giving buyers more competitive options, which is consistent with what the Movoto data shows in North Bay Village through August 2026.
Should I wait for Ritz-Carlton pricing before buying elsewhere in North Bay Village? Pricing and floor plans for the Related and Macklowe project had not been released as of mid-2026, and comparable Ritz-Carlton branded product in Sunny Isles Beach resells around $2,200 per square foot after opening preconstruction closer to $1,400 to $1,500. That gives a rough sense of where a comparable North Bay Village project could land, though nothing has been confirmed by the developer.
Is a small building on a large lot always a good investment because of redevelopment potential? Not necessarily, and this is exactly the kind of question worth working through with someone who tracks these assemblages closely rather than assuming based on lot size alone. Zoning, association structure, and a developer's actual interest in that specific parcel all matter.
If you are weighing a purchase in North Bay Village against another waterfront pocket of Miami, the numbers on a listing page will not tell you which wave you are buying into. Maruja Gil tracks these developments as they file, finance, and break ground, and can walk you through what a specific building's position actually means for your plans. Request your complimentary home valuation to start that conversation.
